PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The truestarz’s government editor of awards, Scott Feinberg, displays his greatest try to predict the habits of the Academy of Movement Image Arts and Sciences, not his private preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and business insiders, evaluation of selling and awards campaigns, outcomes of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the historical past of the Oscars ceremony itself. There shall be common updates to mirror new developments.

* * *

*BEST PICTURE*

Frontrunners
Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) — podcast (Jerry Bruckheimer)
The Fabelmans (Common) — podcast (Steven Spielberg)
All the things In all places All at As soon as (A24)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight)
Elvis (Warner Bros.)
Tár (Focus)
Avatar: The Method of Water (twentieth Century/Disney)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Thriller (Netflix)
Black Panther: Wakanda Eternally (Disney) — podcast (Kevin Feige)
RRR (Variance)

Main Threats
Babylon (Paramount)
All Quiet on the Western Entrance (Netflix)
Triangle of Unhappiness (Neon)
The Whale (A24)
Girls Speaking (UAR)

Prospects
The Lady King (Sony)
She Mentioned (Common)
Dwelling (Sony Classics)
Aftersun (A24)
Until (UAR) — podcast (Barbara Broccoli)

*BEST DIRECTOR*

Frontrunners
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) — podcast
Todd Area (Tár)
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
James Cameron (Avatar: The Method of Water)
Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan (All the things In all places All at As soon as)

Main Threats
Baz Luhrmann (Elvis)
Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Entrance)
Joseph Kosinski (Prime Gun: Maverick)
Sarah Polley (Girls Speaking)
S. S. Rajamouli (RRR)
Damien Chazelle (Babylon) — podcast

Prospects
Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Unhappiness)
Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Lady King)
Ryan Coogler (Black Panther: Wakanda Eternally)
Ron Howard (13 Lives) — podcast
Darren Aronofsky (The Whale)
Charlotte Wells (Aftersun)

*BEST ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Austin Butler (Elvis)
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Invoice Nighy (Dwelling)
Tom Cruise (Prime Gun: Maverick)

Main Threats
Adam Sandler (Hustle) — podcast
Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans)
Ralph Fiennes (The Menu)
Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)
Tom Hanks (A Man Known as Otto) — podcast 1 and a couple of

Prospects
Daniel Kaluuya (Nope)
Diego Calva (Babylon)
Hugh Jackman (The Son) — podcast
Felix Kammerer (All Quiet on the Western Entrance)
Will Smith (Emancipation) — podcast
Music Kang-ho (Dealer)

*BEST ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Michelle Yeoh (All the things In all places All at As soon as) — podcast
Cate Blanchett (Tár) — podcast
Danielle Deadwyler (Until)
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Ana de Armas (Blonde)

Main Threats
Olivia Colman (Empire of Gentle)
Viola Davis (The Lady King)
Margot Robbie (Babylon) — podcast
Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande) — podcast
Vicky Krieps (Corsage)
Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)

Prospects
Rooney Mara (Girls Speaking)
Jennifer Lawrence (Causeway) — podcast
Anya Taylor-Pleasure (The Menu) — podcast
Zoe Kazan (She Mentioned)
Letitia Wright (Black Panther: Wakanda Eternally)
Jessica Chastain (The Good Nurse) — podcast

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Ke Huy Quan (All the things In all places All at As soon as)
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)

Main Threats
Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) — podcast
Brad Pitt (Babylon)
Tom Hanks (Elvis) — podcast 1 and a couple of

Prospects
Ben Whishaw (Girls Speaking)
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
Micheal Ward (Empire of Gentle)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Eternally)
Jamie Lee Curtis (All the things In all places All at As soon as)
Stephanie Hsu (All the things In all places All at As soon as) — podcast
Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Unhappiness)
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Main Threats
Hong Chau (The Whale)
Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Thriller) — podcast
Nina Hoss (Tár)
Claire Foy (Girls Speaking) — podcast
Jessie Buckley (Girls Speaking)

Prospects
Gabrielle Union (The Inspection)
Carey Mulligan (She Mentioned) — podcast
Keke Palmer (Nope)
Jean Sensible (Babylon)
Lashana Lynch (The Lady King)

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
Girls Speaking (Sarah Polley)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Thriller (Rian Johnson)
All Quiet on the Western Entrance (Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell)
Dwelling (Kazuo Ishiguro)
White Noise (Noah Baumbach)

Main Threats
The Whale (Samuel D. Hunter)
She Mentioned (Rebecca Lenkiewicz)
Woman Chatterley’s Lover (David Magee)
The Good Nurse (Krysty Wilson-Cairns)

Prospects
Prime Gun: Maverick (Peter Craig, Ehren Kruger, Justin Marks, Christopher McQuarrie & Eric Warren Singer)
Black Panther: Wakanda Eternally (Joe Robert Cole & Ryan Coogler)
Avatar: The Method of Water (James Cameron, Rick Jaffa & Amanda Silver)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
All the things In all places All at As soon as (Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh)
The Fabelmans (Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg) — podcast (Spielberg)
Tár (Todd Area)
Triangle of Unhappiness (Ruben Östlund)

Main Threats
Elvis (Jeremy Doner, Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell & Craig Pearce)
Babylon (Damien Chazelle) — podcast
The Lady King (Dana Stevens)
Nope (Jordan Peele) — podcast
RRR (S. S. Rajamouli)

Prospects
Until (Keith Beauchamp, Chinonye Chukwu & Michael Reilly)
Aftersun (Charlotte Wells)
Armageddon Time (James Grey) — podcast
Shut (Lukas Dhont & Angelo Tijssens)
The Inspection (Class Bratton)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*

Frontrunners
All Quiet on the Western Entrance (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
EO (Poland)
The Quiet Lady (Eire)
Shut (Belgium)

Main Threats
Determination to Go away (South Korea)
Holy Spider (Denmark)
Saint Omer (France)
Corsage (Austria)
Bardo (Mexico) — podcast (Alejandro González Iñárritu)

Prospects
Final Movie Present (India)
Cairo Conspiracy (Sweden)
The Blue Caftan (Morocco)
Joyland (Pakistan)
Return to Seoul (Cambodia)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

Frontrunners
All That Breathes (HBO)
Navalny (Warner Bros./CNN)
Retrograde (Nat Geo)
Final Flight Residence (MTV)
Unhealthy Axe (IFC)

Main Threats
All of the Magnificence and the Bloodshed (Neon)
Fireplace of Love (Nat Geo/Neon)
The Territory (Nat Geo)
Descendant (Netflix)
Moonage Daydream (Neon)

Prospects
The Janes (HBO)
Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Music (Sony Classics)
Hidden Letters (Cargo)
Kids of the Mist (Movie Motion)
A Home Product of Splinters (nonetheless searching for U.S. distribution)

*BEST ANIMATED FEATURE*

Frontrunners
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)
Marcel the Shell With Footwear On (A24)
Turning Purple (Pixar)
Puss in Boots: The Final Want (Dreamworks)
Wendell & Wild (Netflix)

Main Contenders
Inu-Oh (GKIDS)
Unusual World (Disney)
Apollo 10 1/2 (Netflix)
The Bob’s Burgers Film (twentieth Century)
The Unhealthy Guys (Common)

Prospects
Minions: The Rise of Gru (Common/Illumination)
Everlasting Spring (ARTE)
Luck (Apple/Skydance)
My Father’s Dragon (Netflix)
The Sea Beast (Netflix)

*BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY*

Frontrunners
Prime Gun: Maverick (Claudio Miranda)
Elvis (Mandy Walker)
Babylon (Linus Sandgren)
Avatar: The Method of Water (Russell Carpenter)
The Fabelmans (Janusz Kaminski)

Main Threats
Empire of Gentle (Roger Deakins)
The Batman (Greig Fraser)
Bardo (Darius Khondji)
Black Panther: Wakanda Eternally (Autumn Durald Arkapaw)
All Quiet on the Western Entrance (James Good friend)
Tár (Florian Hoffmeister)
Emancipation (Robert Richardson)

Prospects
The Banshees of Inisherin (Ben Davis)
All the things In all places All at As soon as (Larkin Seiple)
RRR (Okay. Okay. Senthil Kumar)
The Lady King (Polly Morgan)
Don’t Fear Darling (Matty Libatique)
Girls Speaking (Luc Montpellier)
Nope (Hoyte van Hoytema)

*BEST COSTUME DESIGN*

Frontrunners
Elvis (Catherine Martin)
Babylon (Mary Zophres)
Black Panther: Wakanda Eternally (Ruth E. Carter)
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Jenny Beavan)
Dwelling (Sandy Powell)

Main Threats
The Fabelmans (Mark Bridges)
The Lady King (Gersha Phillips)
Avatar: The Method of Water (Deborah Lynn Scott)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Thriller (Jenny Eagan)
Empire of Gentle (Alexandra Byrne)
Until (Marci Rodgers)
All the things In all places All at As soon as (Shirley Kurata)
White Noise (Ann Roth)
Don’t Fear Darling (Arianne Phillips)

Prospects
The Banshees of Inisherin (Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh)
The Batman (Jacqueline Durran)
Blonde (Jennifer Johnson)
Tár (Bina Daigeler)
Corsage (Monika Buttinger)
Girls Speaking (Quita Alfred)
My Policeman (Annie Symons)
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Diane Dwyer, Laura Kerrigan & Annika Schindler)
Armageddon Time (Madeline Weeks)

*BEST FILM EDITING*

Frontrunners
Prime Gun: Maverick (Eddie Hamilton)
Elvis (Jonathan Redmond & Matt Villa)
Avatar: The Method of Water (David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refoua & Stephen E. Rivkin)
All the things In all places All at As soon as (Paul Rogers)
The Fabelmans (Sarah Broshar & Michael Kahn)

Main Threats
Black Panther: Wakanda Eternally (Kelley Dixon, Jennifer Lame & Michael P. Shawver)
Babylon (Tom Cross)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Thriller (Bob Ducsay)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Mikkel E.G. Nielsen)
All Quiet on the Western Entrance (Sven Budelmann)
Tár (Monika Willi)
Triangle of Unhappiness (Mikel Cee Karlsson & Ruben Östlund)

Prospects
RRR (A. Sreekar Prasad)
13 Lives (James D. Wilcox)
The Batman (William Hoy & Tyler Nelson)
The Lady King (Terilyn A. Shropshire)
Girls Speaking (Christopher Donaldson & Roslyn Kalloo)
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Holly Klein & Ken Schretzmann)
She Mentioned (Hansjörg Weißbrich)

*BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING*

Frontrunners
Elvis
The Whale
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Eternally
All Quiet on the Western Entrance

Main Threats
Crimes of the Future
Blonde
Babylon

Prospects
Emancipation
Amsterdam

*BEST ORIGINAL SCORE*

Frontrunners
Babylon (Justin Hurwitz)
The Fabelmans (John Williams)
Girls Speaking (Hildur Guðnadóttir)
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Alexandre Desplat)
Avatar: The Method of Water (Simon Franglen)

Main Threats
Black Panther: Wakanda Eternally (Ludwig Göransson)
The Lady King (Terence Blanchard)
All Quiet on the Western Entrance (Volker Bertelmann)
She Mentioned (Nicholas Britell)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Carter Burwell)

Prospects
All the things In all places All at As soon as (Son Lux)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Thriller (Nathan Johnson)
Devotion (Chanda Dancy)
Don’t Fear Darling (John Powell)
Nope (Michael Abels)

*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*

Frontrunners
“Naatu Naatu” (RRR) — M. M. Keeravani and Chandrabose
“Raise Me Up” (Black Panther: Wakanda Eternally) — Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna and Tems
“Maintain My Hand” (Prime Gun: Maverick) — Woman Gaga and Michael ‘BloodPop’ Tucker — podcast 1 and a couple of (Gaga)
“New Physique Rhumba” (White Noise) — James Murphy
“Stand Up” (Until) — Dernst ‘D’Mile’ Emile II and Jazmine Sullivan

Main Threats
“Ciao Papa” (Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio) — Guillermo del Toro and Roeban Katz — podcast (del Toro)
“Carolina” (The place the Crawdads Sing) — Taylor Swift
“Nothing Is Misplaced (You Give Me Power)” (Avatar: The Method of Water) — Simon Franglen, Swedish Home Mafia and Abel ‘The Weeknd’ Tesfaye
“This Is a Life” (All the things In all places All at As soon as) — David Byrne, Ryan Lott and Mitski — podcast (Byrne)
“Applause” (Inform It Like a Lady) — Diane Warren — podcast

Prospects
“My Thoughts and Me” (Selena Gomez: My Thoughts and Me) — Amy Allen, Jonathan Bellion, Selena Gomez, Jordan Okay. Johnson, Stefan Johnson & Michael Pollack — podcast (Gomez)
“Good Afternoon” (Spirited) — Benj Pasek, Khiyon Hursey, Sukari Jones, Justin Paul & Mark Sonnenblick
“Time” (Amsterdam) — Aubrey ‘Drake’ Graham, Giveon Evans, Daniel Pemberton and Jahaan Akil Candy
“Mud & Ash” (The Voice of Mud and Ash) — J. Ralph — podcast
“Til You’re Residence” (A Man Known as Otto) — David Hodges & Rita Wilson

*BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN*

Frontrunners
Elvis
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Eternally
Avatar: The Method of Water
Glass Onion: A Knives Onion Thriller

Main Threats
All the things In all places All at As soon as
The Fabelmans
All Quiet on the Western Entrance
The Batman
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
13 Lives
The Lady King
RRR
Triangle of Unhappiness

Prospects
Bardo
Don’t Fear Darling
Girls Speaking
Until
The Banshees of Inisherin
Don’t Fear Darling
Empire of Gentle
Dwelling
Tár

*BEST SOUND*

Frontrunners
Elvis
Prime Gun: Maverick
Avatar: The Method of Water
Black Panther: Wakanda Eternally
All Quiet on the Western Entrance

Main Threats
Babylon
The Batman
Moonage Daydream

Prospects
All the things In all places All at As soon as
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

*BEST VISUAL EFFECTS*

Frontrunners
Avatar: The Method of Water
Black Panther: Wakanda Eternally
Physician Unusual within the Multiverse of Insanity
The Batman
Prime Gun: Maverick

Main Threats
All Quiet on the Western Entrance
Jurassic World Dominion
Unbelievable Beasts: The Secrets and techniques of Dumbledore

Prospects
13 Lives
Nope